Growing Rivalry between The US and China: Implications for South Asia
Growing Rivalry between The US and China: Implications for South Asia
Shahid Iqbal Sasoli
Articles

South Asia has always been a region of great interest and conflict for major powers, particularly over the last four decades. It has been an area where superpowers have 

engaged themselves in various armed conflicts and proxies. The Soviet Union attacked Afghanistan on December 24, 1979 for warm water access. It is a  major example of a conflict

between big players in this region. The war ended with the victory of the Western block while the USSR disintegrated within a decade. After the war, the US left this region, leaving war-torn Afghanistan in gloominess. Again, the 9/11 incident changed the complete

direction of US foreign policy towards South Asia and US-led coalition forces entered

Afghanistan to thwart a pre-conceived threat. Meanwhile, Pakistan, being the frontline

state, remained a close ally of the US, despite the fact that US security policy has more inclination towards India in this region, especially since the 1990s. Today, India is a pronounced strategic partner with the US to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

In this context, the rise of China might seem to present a serious challenge to US hegemony in the world, but increasing Indo-US defense partnership is continuously disturbing the balance of power in the region. The Sino-Indian standoff at Ladakh, revocation of Articles 370 and 35A from the Indian constitution, year-long

inhumane curfew in Indian occupied Kashmir (IIOJK)

, violations at the line of control.

Security is a social phenomenon; nobody can understand the national security of any specific state without understanding the global design of security dependence in which it is rooted. The notion of “amity or enmity” is conceited by factors, such as

ideology, territory, ethnic line, and old patterns and it follows what is called a security complex. South Asia is emerging as an arena for major powers’ new great game in the

21st century. Geo-strategically, South Asia connects China and Central Asia with the Indian Ocean. These states can enter the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan. China, besides China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), also tries to find a

way to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); this project is called the “Irrawaddy Corridor”. On the other hand, Pakistan and India being nuclear States have increased the strategic importance of South Asia. The end of the Cold War has seen an exclusive power shift in the world with the US at the top leading into a new symmetry, but its loyalty and durability have been argued strongly.

Since the last two decades, China has been taking more interest in South Asia. Its South Asian policy pivots on various factors that are

intentionally determined and politically and economically demonstrated.  China remains an effective supporter of maintaining peace and cooperation in South Asia, especially in the hostile relations between India and Pakistan. In general, if we

observe the equilibrium of power between China and India, China is in a sound position based on its trade and military and Beijing wants to maintain this difference. China is interested to stretch regional connectivity in a considerable way and for this, China has initiated the “One Belt, precipitous One Road” (OBOR) project. It is building

up the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) on land and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) in the sea. This project proposes to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa. China’s geographical existence in the neighborhood of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri

Lanka has the aim to increase its economic relations in this region. China’s BRI has included four sub-projects in South Asia, i.e., CPEC Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar

Economic Corridor (BCIM), Trans-Himalaya Corridor, and China’s cooperation with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Maldives under MSR.

Apart from CPEC, China has multi-layered interests in the region. A Chinese analyst, Wang Jisi, mentioned that East Asia will remain significant for China but

Beijing is interested to pay more strategic attention to its west. That is why, China is developing its western provinces and initiating new schemes in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia, and all over the Caspian Sea region towards Europe. This new western

policy can redesign China’s geopolitical dream and the European landscape as

well. India is suspicious about the “string of pearls”, but China claims that it would be used for commercial purposes. Dean Cheng, a senior research scholar at the Heritage Foundation, carefully stated that “military bases need large investments, more explicit

military presence including access treaties with host states. Indian Ocean docks facilities do not mean to encircle India. However, doubts are still there in the minds of Indian experts.

The history of the Sino-Indian relationship is much more complex. Their rivalry is strengthened by regional disagreements, border disputes, and political resistance. The China-India territorial disputes are in the Himalayas on their shared borderline, such as Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Aksai Chin. Over a period of time,

these border disputes have become more intensified, revealing bitterness between both

States. The hostility between China and India highlights their economic differences, strategic hold, and distrust. This animosity has serious effects on other South Asian

and Central Asian States. In fact, India is striving to challenge China’s hold on Tibet and its rights in the areas next to the border, especially Arunachal Pradesh. Therefore,

Beijing-New Delhi equilibrium of supremacy in the region is knotted with the geopolitically adjacent border areas. China has deployed an advanced armed setup in

the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) adjacent to India for security purposes.

China is also providing economic aid for infrastructure development to India’s neighbors. In response, India has increased its linkages with the US, Japan, Australia, and East Asian nations.

On June 15, 2020, Chinese and Indian troops once again contested with each other in the disputed areas of the Himalayan region. The battle took place when China

and India were engaged in resolving their latest border dispute, which started in May

Pakistan’s Concerns on Indo-US Growing Strategic Partnership

Subsequent to signing the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) between India and the US, Pakistan notified that the provision of sophisticated military hardware, technologies, and expertise to India might jeopardize regional stability and peace. Pakistan’s Foreign Office Spokesperson stated that “India’s huge purchase of weapons and extension of its nuclear forces, including the launch of new

threatening weapon systems are developing serious impacts for peace and stability in

South Asia.” He also included that the latest missile tests performed by India are signs of serious Indian conventional and nuclear military expansion.

After signing BECA, India has got access to precision topographical, nautical, and aeronautical data

and topographical images from US military satellites on a real-time basis. The data could be applied to missiles and armed drones. Since the US and India lodged on a

strategic partnership in 2005, it is the eighth agreement signed by both states. Pakistan considers that the agreement would raise Pakistan’s strategic difficulties, even though it is being shown as part of attempts to contain China. To conclude, South Asia is the region, where consequences of enmity among the existing

geopolitical fault lines are gradually becoming evident. According to Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution, the region is moving towards a bipolar alliance system

between the US and India on the one hand, and Pakistan and China on the other.

While the Chinese are building an economic corridor in Pakistan that will attach its landlocked Xinjiang region to the Arabian Sea and allow it to bypass the strategic chokepoint at the Strait of Malacca. In response, the US is heavily investing in India as a counterbalance. In short, the love and hate relationship has increased economic competition as well as security threats for the region in one way or the other.